Another new dog and a blizzard on the way...

Waiting for the wind to arrive after it's snowed for the last few hours. According to the weather bureau:

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks, has issued a blizzard warning. which is in effect until 3 am Alaska Standard Time Sunday: blowing snow....reducing visibility to one quarter mile or less at times., winds northwest 25 to 35 mph gusting to 50 mph. (http://pafg.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=WWAK41PAFG&type=public)

Yesterday we picked up another dog. This one's named Bella and she's supposed to be the mother of Easter (Ester or Estella?). Should be interesting, working with some new dogs in the team while breaking trail after the big blizzard. Here's her picture (taken from Facebook).

New dog and a dog run...

Well it took a while, but finally got out on the trail with the dogs this year. Probably the latest ever, but the health issues rule, I guess. Got a new dog too. Unfortunately, a local musher  died and left a bunch of dogs that needed a place to go, so we brought one home. She's a young female, the first  we've had in quite a while, so it'll be interesting to see how the team dynamics change with a new dog. Other than that, it was a routine dog run and we made it around the new gully with no problems. Here's a photo of Easter, the new girl.  Though I've already started to call her Ester, who knows what her name will be, we almost always change the dogs name to fit their personality.

Here's another shot, find the hidden dog:

Warmest ever?...

As noted earlier (Climate change? 10/18/14), not only was it very warm in Alaska, the entire year of 2014 was the warmest on record:
"Last year was the hottest on Earth since record-keeping began in 1880, scientists reported Friday, underscoring warnings about the risks of runaway greenhouse-gas emissions and undermining claims by climate-change contrarians that global warming had somehow stopped. Extreme heat blanketed Alaska and much of the western U.S. last year. Records were set across large areas of every inhabited continent. And the ocean surface was unusually warm virtually everywhere except near Antarctica, the scientists said, providing the energy that fueled damaging Pacific storms. In the annals of climatology, 2014 surpassed 2010 as the warmest year. The 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1997, a reflection of the relentless planetary warming that scientists say is a consequence of human activity and poses profound long-term risks to civilization and nature." (http://www.adn.com/article/20150105/2014-was-warmest-year-record-much- alaska)
And now, with the exception of a couple of days of minus 30F at the beginning,  Jan. is shaping up to be another warm month. That's OK by me, since I finally started getting out on the old Ski Doo to put in the dog trail. It's a lot easier to start the beast when it's above zero. One thing that's certainly noticeable  this winter, is that with all the rain last summer (The End of Thermidor 7/31/14) as well as the warmer weather, there are a lot more gullies forming in the trail. One new one is already 5 to 6 feet deep where it crosses the trail. I was able to reroute the trail over the shallower end, but it'll still make for an interesting ride with the dog team.

Taken last year, this is the area where the gullies formed this summer. Will try to get a current photo, if I can remember the camera next time out. (Did that!)

Here's a photo of the gully this year. Hard to see with the lack of contrast and low angle sun. The trail now skirts the gully on the right of the photo. Will get a better shot when the sun gets up a little higher later in the month.

Sun time...

The sun is noticeably higher now, even though it's been less than 3 weeks since the solstice.  One odd thing is that when the sun reaches it's apex , 3° now,  it's around 1 pm, not noon. That's because back in the 80's the politicians in Juneau decided we needed to be closer to Seattle time, so Alaska's four time zones became two. The Alaska Time Zone (UTC−9) was switched to Yukon Time Zone (UTC-8), which is one hour earlier than Pacific Time (instead of two). The Yukon Territory switched to the Pacific Time Zone in 1975 and the Yukon Time Zone was not used except for a small area around Yakutat. Then, just to confuse things a little more, they changed the name back to the Alaska Time Zone.
The state of Alaska spans almost as much longitude as the contiguous United States (57.5° vs. 57.6°) so the use of two time zones will inevitably lead to some distortions. A clock set to Alaska time in Fairbanks reads 12:57 at solar noon. When daylight savings time is applied in the spring, this effect becomes even more apparent as solar noon is about 2 hours off. That's why in Alaska it's often referred to as "double daylight time" during the summer.  Largely taken from:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Time_Zone.
Here's a couple of photos of the January sun.

Heat wave for the new year...

Had another chinook blow through town and pushed the temperature up to the mid-thirties F the last few days. It even rained a bit yesterday. Supposed to cool down below zero by tomorrow night, so that's good. Can't abide by this warmth for too long.
Still not running the dogs. The Doc told me to wait a couple of more weeks to let the hip fully heal. So that's not so good, but as always, the time will pass and we'll soon have the boys out on the trail again. Until then, they get to run around the yard and play dog down.

Video by Andy (no dogs were harmed in making this).

Winter Solstice...

As I noted at this time last winter (Sunshine...1/1/14), the winter solstice in Alaska is not just a time of short days and cold weather. The low angle of sun (it rises just over 2° above the horizon) makes for fantastic sun rises and sunsets. Since the day length changes only a few seconds per day during mid December, these short day sunsets occur for several weeks. As noted here: "December may be marked by Christmas, but for pagans it’s the time to celebrate Yule holiday. This ancient event marks the winter solstice in the Northern Hemisphere (Sunday, Dec. 21, this year) and celebrates the rebirth of the sun and beginning of winter. It is one of the oldest winter celebrations known. The winter solstice is the longest night and shortest day of the year. The Earth’s axis tilts the furthest away from the sun at 23-and-a-half degrees, giving all locations north of the equator less than 12 hours of daylight. This moment has been marked by mankind for centuries. Celebrating the rebirth of the sun can be seen in other cultures throughout history. While these typically took place during the coldest, darkest days of the year, winter solstice traditions were celebrations that gave people hope sunny days lay ahead. In ancient Rome, the weeklong feast of Saturnalia honored the sun god Saturn. Celts believed the sun stood still for 12 days, making it necessary to light a log fire to conquer the darkness. During the Iron Age, the Celts and other ancient Europeans welcomed the winter solstice by feasting, merrymaking and sacrificing animals." (http://www.ibtimes.com/winter-solstice-2014-3-things-know-about-pagan-yule-celebrations-1763756). Now a days, people still celebrate the Christmas holiday by decorating trees, hanging wreaths, and burning yule logs, not realizing they're carry-overs from these ancient pagan rites. Here's some photos taken during solstice week:

Another snowstorm...

Like October, December started with a snowstorm. This time we got almost 8 inches of snow over two days. It was a good excuse to finally get outside and push some snow around with the tractor. And now we can quit worrying about the septic freezing up like it did 2 years ago when we didn't get much snow until new years. As for November, here's the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE's monthly summary: "November 2014 was warm and dry overall with no significant cold snaps or large storms for the Fairbanks area. The average high temperature was 19.0 degrees which was 8.1 degrees above the normal high and ranked as the 20th warmest of 110 years of record. The average low temperature was 2.5 degrees above the average low temperature and ranked as the 20th warmest. The average temperature for the month was 10.8 degrees which was 8.2 degrees above average and ranked as the 19th warmest on record . November was very dry with the first measurable snow not occurring until the 25th when 2.6 inches of snow fell at the airport. For the month, only 3.8 inches of snow fell which was 9.4 inches below the normal snow fall of 13.2 inches. This ranks as the 85th snowiest November of 99 years of record. Only 0.18 inches of water equivalent fell which was 0.49 inches below the normal of 0.67 inches. This ranks as the 15th driest of 100 years of record. Looking forward to December, the average high temperature drops from 7 above on the 1st to 2 above on the 31st. the average low drops from 11 below on the 1st to 16 below on the 31st. In the last 109 years temperatures have varied by 120 degrees, from a high of 58 above in 1934 to a low of 62 below in 1961. Average snowfall is 12 inches but has been as much as 50.7 inches in 1984 to as little as a trace in 1969. The long term outlook for Fairbanks for December calls for increased chances for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above or below normal precipitation. December is the darkest month of the year with possible sunshine decreasing from 4 hours and 41 minutes on the 1st to the annual minimum of 3 hours and 42 minutes on the winter solstice. By the 31st possible sunshine increases to 3 hours and 58 minutes gaining 16 minutes along the long climb back to the summer solstice in June."

Finally some more snow...

After an early October snowstorm dumped nearly half a foot of heavy wet snow (Winter's a comin'...10/1/14), we went over a month with virtually none. And then after the local news-minus (newsminer.com) predicted a snowless Nov, it looked pretty bleak for outdoor activities. But then the light snow forecast for Mon turned into a dump of 3-4 inches and winter's looking pretty good again. Won't be running dogs anytime soon though, since we just got back from Seattle where I had the other hip redone (Summer vacation? 6/30/14). Still gimping around on crutches, but hopefully will be back to it in a month or so. Some photos after the latest snow:

Wood enough for ya' ?

My neighbor stopped by the other day while I was splitting wood. As he walked over he looked at all the wood piles and asked why I was still splitting wood when I had so much stacked already. Well I just rambled on for a bit about how it's good exercise and besides, you never know how much you'll need. So we went inside and the conversation moved on. But later on I got to thinking, when is it wood enough? When Andy and I both were working, we burned a lot less wood cause we were both gone all day. Now that I'm home a lot more, I keep the fire going most of the day, especially during the cold part of winter (Nov. to Mar.). So we probably burn half again more wood than we used to. Since it's not exactly stacked into cord wood units, it's hard to say how much we burn, but I used to figure we used around 3-4 cords and now it's probably closer to 6. Also, I like to let the wood dry for 2 summers after it's stacked, so you need more wood when you're splitting for winter after next. So I guess the answer is, it's like money in the bank, you never really have wood enough.

Thermidor in October?

While not as warm as September (Climate change? 10/18/14), October averaged slightly above normal for the month. According to the weather service:
 "The average temperature was 25.2 degrees which was 1.0 degrees above the normal. The average maximum temperature at the Fairbanks airport was 31.5 degrees which was 0.4 degrees below the normal maximum temperature. This ranked as the 40th coldest of 110 years of record. The average minimum temperature was 18.9 degrees which was 2.4 degrees above the normal minimum temperature. This ranked as the 51st warmest of 110 years of record."
 So while the max temps were below normal, the mins were well above. This is the same pattern noted for the Pacific northwest (cliffmass.blogspot.com) and was largely attributed by him to the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) rather than any influence from global warming. I found this kind of an odd conclusion, so googled it up. Found this comment on the PDO and global climate change: Is Pacific Decadal Oscillation the Smoking Gun? "The blogosphere is abuzz with the news that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is reverting to a cool phase. Hot on the heels of this bombshell, a new climate model predicts a cooling North Atlantic Ocean will slow down global warming. This has led to speculation that man-made global warming is no match for natural cycles or even that Pacific Decadal Oscillation is responsible for most of the climate change over the past century including the warming since the mid-70's. The PDO is a climate phenomena found primarily in the North Pacific (as opposed to El Niño which affects mostly the tropical Pacific). It has two phases that it typically alternates between; usually staying in one phase for a significant period of time (as little as 10 and as much as 40 years). The phases of the PDO have been called warm phases (positive values) or cool phases (negative values). While we talk about a 20 to 30 year period, it is not very clear cut at all. In fact, an analysis of the frequency of the events does not produce much in the way of a firm period. While PDO does have some degree of correlation with short term variations in global temperature, the striking feature is the contrast in trends between PDO and global temperature. Obviously the PDO as an oscillation between positive and negative values shows no long term trend. In contrast, global temperature displays a long term warming trend. When the PDO last switched to a cool phase, global temperatures were about 0.4C cooler than currently. The long term warming trend indicates the total energy in the Earth's climate system is increasing. This is due to an energy imbalance - more energy is coming in than is going out. Various factors affect the Earth's energy balance. The total energy imbalance is expressed as net forcing, the sum of all the various forcings (eg - solar, aerosols, greenhouse gases, etc). When all forcings are included, net forcing shows good correlation with global temperatures. There is no single smoking gun. As our climate continues to absorb more energy than it emits, we can expect the long term warming trend to continue with short term fluctuations." http://www.skepticalscience.com/Is-Pacific-Decadal-Oscillation-the-Smoking-Gun.html. 
So there you go, another opinion. Who's right? We'll probably know in a few more years, since the PDO is expected to enter a negative (cooler) phase. If global temperatures continue to rise, well, that's all folks.

Seasonally Affected Cats?

As I mentioned earlier (Winters a' comin' 10/1/14), the first snows of the year always seem to confuse and disappoint the cats. While they somewhat tolerate the colder weather, they don't like the snow and unhappily spend increasing amounts of time indoors. Now it would appear there's another reason for their misery: Seasonal Affective Disorder in Cats. "Cats, perhaps more so than people, are sensitive to changes in light. Less light in the winter may cause a decrease in natural brain chemicals, like serotonin, that increase mood. One of the most notable symptoms of seasonal affective disorder is wanting to sleep all the time. Cats may overeat during the winter months. This can lead to unhealthy weight gain, so may need encouragement to get off the couch and be active." (http://www.ehow.com/about_5369713_seasonal-affective-disorder-cats.html). While they certainly overeat in the winter, they do pretty good job of it year round. Ruty's idea of exercise is to go from the couch to his food bowl, then to the litter box, and finally back to the couch. Repeat as needed. But they have adapted to the cold quite well, sharing the old couch dowstairs next to the monitor heater.

Although Ruty often prefers lounging in front of the woodstove when there's a good hot fire going.

Climate change?

Shortly after the last post (Winter's a' comin'10/1/14), the climate summary for Alaska came out. Not surprisingly, the average temperatures for September, like August, were well above normal statewide (http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/node/710).
What was surprising was an article that came out a little later: September Was Warmest on Record, NASA Data Show. "Like August before it, September 2014 was the warmest September on record, according to newly updated NASA data. The warm month makes it even more likely that 2014 will become the warmest year on record. Ocean temperatures have played a large role in 2014’s warmth, including the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that have accompanied an emerging El Niño, Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told Climate Central in an email. The ocean is where some 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases is stored." (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/september-2014-warmest-on-record-18172). Proof of global warming?
Hold on. Here's another view: Why is the Northwest U.S. warming? Natural variations or mankind's greenhouse gases? "Originally there was a lot of talk (last spring) of the potential for a Super El Nino, with some of the global warming "advocate" sites talking about its effects on the global temperature record. El Ninos (ENSO) are associated with warmer than normal water in the tropical Pacific and that such anomalies can influence Northwest weather (less storms, warmer, less snow). However, the sea surface temperatures in the critical central Pacific is only modestly warmer than normal and the atmospheric circulation has not reacted in a way to reinforce the warming and push us towards a moderate or stronger El Nino. So we should not expect much more than a marginal El Nino during the upcoming fall and early winter months. And amplitude matters. Weak El Ninos have lesser impacts. The correlation of our weather with El Nino is not perfect to start with. And for weak El Nino years the relationship weakens further. But for weak El Nino years, the precipitation patterns are all over the place. The latest NWS Climate Forecast System forecasts for December-January-February is for warmer than average over much of the U.S. But there is another type of natural variability that has a huge impact on the weather/climate of the Pacific basin. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a period of around 50 years, oscillating between warm and cold cycles. It was in a cool cycle between roughly 1950 and 1977, then a warm cycle until around 2005, and more recently looks to be in a cooler cycle. If you compare the variations of the PDO with the Northwest temperatures, it is very obvious that the variations of NW temps seems to closely follow the PDO changes, suggesting our temperatures are highly controlled by this mode of natural variability. Thus, when some local scientists say that the temperature changes experienced here in the Northwest are mainly due to greenhouse gas emissions they are certainly incorrect. We live in an area where the greenhouse gas signal is small and where natural variability (as forced by the PDO and ENSO) are quite large (and there are other modes of natural variability)." (http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/).
 So who's right? Perhaps a better indicator of climate change are systems that respond to longer term cycles, like ice caps and glaciers. Two articles that point towards longer climate change are: Strong Temperature Increase and Shrinking Sea Ice in Arctic Alaska, which discusses recent temperature rises and loss of sea ice cover in the Arctic ocean (http://climate.gi.alaska.edu). Are glaciers growing or retreating? "Globally, glaciers are losing ice at an extensive rate. There are still situations in which glaciers gain or lose ice more than typical for one region or another but the long term trends are all the same, and about 90% of glaciers are shrinking worldwide." (http://www.skepticalscience.com/himalayan-glaciers-growing.htm). So what's the answer? No matter how much data will point to a particular outcome, some skeptics will confound the issues by only picking individual anomalies or by ignoring long term trends. These diversions do not address the most important question: what is the real state of global climate change?  Politicians are the worst, often choosing a position solely to gain support from their base. And in election years, the climate change clown show will only escalate.