Finally some more snow...

After an early October snowstorm dumped nearly half a foot of heavy wet snow (Winter's a comin'...10/1/14), we went over a month with virtually none. And then after the local news-minus (newsminer.com) predicted a snowless Nov, it looked pretty bleak for outdoor activities. But then the light snow forecast for Mon turned into a dump of 3-4 inches and winter's looking pretty good again. Won't be running dogs anytime soon though, since we just got back from Seattle where I had the other hip redone (Summer vacation? 6/30/14). Still gimping around on crutches, but hopefully will be back to it in a month or so. Some photos after the latest snow:

Wood enough for ya' ?

My neighbor stopped by the other day while I was splitting wood. As he walked over he looked at all the wood piles and asked why I was still splitting wood when I had so much stacked already. Well I just rambled on for a bit about how it's good exercise and besides, you never know how much you'll need. So we went inside and the conversation moved on. But later on I got to thinking, when is it wood enough? When Andy and I both were working, we burned a lot less wood cause we were both gone all day. Now that I'm home a lot more, I keep the fire going most of the day, especially during the cold part of winter (Nov. to Mar.). So we probably burn half again more wood than we used to. Since it's not exactly stacked into cord wood units, it's hard to say how much we burn, but I used to figure we used around 3-4 cords and now it's probably closer to 6. Also, I like to let the wood dry for 2 summers after it's stacked, so you need more wood when you're splitting for winter after next. So I guess the answer is, it's like money in the bank, you never really have wood enough.

Thermidor in October?

While not as warm as September (Climate change? 10/18/14), October averaged slightly above normal for the month. According to the weather service:
 "The average temperature was 25.2 degrees which was 1.0 degrees above the normal. The average maximum temperature at the Fairbanks airport was 31.5 degrees which was 0.4 degrees below the normal maximum temperature. This ranked as the 40th coldest of 110 years of record. The average minimum temperature was 18.9 degrees which was 2.4 degrees above the normal minimum temperature. This ranked as the 51st warmest of 110 years of record."
 So while the max temps were below normal, the mins were well above. This is the same pattern noted for the Pacific northwest (cliffmass.blogspot.com) and was largely attributed by him to the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) rather than any influence from global warming. I found this kind of an odd conclusion, so googled it up. Found this comment on the PDO and global climate change: Is Pacific Decadal Oscillation the Smoking Gun? "The blogosphere is abuzz with the news that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is reverting to a cool phase. Hot on the heels of this bombshell, a new climate model predicts a cooling North Atlantic Ocean will slow down global warming. This has led to speculation that man-made global warming is no match for natural cycles or even that Pacific Decadal Oscillation is responsible for most of the climate change over the past century including the warming since the mid-70's. The PDO is a climate phenomena found primarily in the North Pacific (as opposed to El Niño which affects mostly the tropical Pacific). It has two phases that it typically alternates between; usually staying in one phase for a significant period of time (as little as 10 and as much as 40 years). The phases of the PDO have been called warm phases (positive values) or cool phases (negative values). While we talk about a 20 to 30 year period, it is not very clear cut at all. In fact, an analysis of the frequency of the events does not produce much in the way of a firm period. While PDO does have some degree of correlation with short term variations in global temperature, the striking feature is the contrast in trends between PDO and global temperature. Obviously the PDO as an oscillation between positive and negative values shows no long term trend. In contrast, global temperature displays a long term warming trend. When the PDO last switched to a cool phase, global temperatures were about 0.4C cooler than currently. The long term warming trend indicates the total energy in the Earth's climate system is increasing. This is due to an energy imbalance - more energy is coming in than is going out. Various factors affect the Earth's energy balance. The total energy imbalance is expressed as net forcing, the sum of all the various forcings (eg - solar, aerosols, greenhouse gases, etc). When all forcings are included, net forcing shows good correlation with global temperatures. There is no single smoking gun. As our climate continues to absorb more energy than it emits, we can expect the long term warming trend to continue with short term fluctuations." http://www.skepticalscience.com/Is-Pacific-Decadal-Oscillation-the-Smoking-Gun.html. 
So there you go, another opinion. Who's right? We'll probably know in a few more years, since the PDO is expected to enter a negative (cooler) phase. If global temperatures continue to rise, well, that's all folks.

Seasonally Affected Cats?

As I mentioned earlier (Winters a' comin' 10/1/14), the first snows of the year always seem to confuse and disappoint the cats. While they somewhat tolerate the colder weather, they don't like the snow and unhappily spend increasing amounts of time indoors. Now it would appear there's another reason for their misery: Seasonal Affective Disorder in Cats. "Cats, perhaps more so than people, are sensitive to changes in light. Less light in the winter may cause a decrease in natural brain chemicals, like serotonin, that increase mood. One of the most notable symptoms of seasonal affective disorder is wanting to sleep all the time. Cats may overeat during the winter months. This can lead to unhealthy weight gain, so may need encouragement to get off the couch and be active." (http://www.ehow.com/about_5369713_seasonal-affective-disorder-cats.html). While they certainly overeat in the winter, they do pretty good job of it year round. Ruty's idea of exercise is to go from the couch to his food bowl, then to the litter box, and finally back to the couch. Repeat as needed. But they have adapted to the cold quite well, sharing the old couch dowstairs next to the monitor heater.

Although Ruty often prefers lounging in front of the woodstove when there's a good hot fire going.

Climate change?

Shortly after the last post (Winter's a' comin'10/1/14), the climate summary for Alaska came out. Not surprisingly, the average temperatures for September, like August, were well above normal statewide (http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/node/710).
What was surprising was an article that came out a little later: September Was Warmest on Record, NASA Data Show. "Like August before it, September 2014 was the warmest September on record, according to newly updated NASA data. The warm month makes it even more likely that 2014 will become the warmest year on record. Ocean temperatures have played a large role in 2014’s warmth, including the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that have accompanied an emerging El Niño, Kevin Trenberth, a climatologist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told Climate Central in an email. The ocean is where some 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases is stored." (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/september-2014-warmest-on-record-18172). Proof of global warming?
Hold on. Here's another view: Why is the Northwest U.S. warming? Natural variations or mankind's greenhouse gases? "Originally there was a lot of talk (last spring) of the potential for a Super El Nino, with some of the global warming "advocate" sites talking about its effects on the global temperature record. El Ninos (ENSO) are associated with warmer than normal water in the tropical Pacific and that such anomalies can influence Northwest weather (less storms, warmer, less snow). However, the sea surface temperatures in the critical central Pacific is only modestly warmer than normal and the atmospheric circulation has not reacted in a way to reinforce the warming and push us towards a moderate or stronger El Nino. So we should not expect much more than a marginal El Nino during the upcoming fall and early winter months. And amplitude matters. Weak El Ninos have lesser impacts. The correlation of our weather with El Nino is not perfect to start with. And for weak El Nino years the relationship weakens further. But for weak El Nino years, the precipitation patterns are all over the place. The latest NWS Climate Forecast System forecasts for December-January-February is for warmer than average over much of the U.S. But there is another type of natural variability that has a huge impact on the weather/climate of the Pacific basin. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a period of around 50 years, oscillating between warm and cold cycles. It was in a cool cycle between roughly 1950 and 1977, then a warm cycle until around 2005, and more recently looks to be in a cooler cycle. If you compare the variations of the PDO with the Northwest temperatures, it is very obvious that the variations of NW temps seems to closely follow the PDO changes, suggesting our temperatures are highly controlled by this mode of natural variability. Thus, when some local scientists say that the temperature changes experienced here in the Northwest are mainly due to greenhouse gas emissions they are certainly incorrect. We live in an area where the greenhouse gas signal is small and where natural variability (as forced by the PDO and ENSO) are quite large (and there are other modes of natural variability)." (http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/).
 So who's right? Perhaps a better indicator of climate change are systems that respond to longer term cycles, like ice caps and glaciers. Two articles that point towards longer climate change are: Strong Temperature Increase and Shrinking Sea Ice in Arctic Alaska, which discusses recent temperature rises and loss of sea ice cover in the Arctic ocean (http://climate.gi.alaska.edu). Are glaciers growing or retreating? "Globally, glaciers are losing ice at an extensive rate. There are still situations in which glaciers gain or lose ice more than typical for one region or another but the long term trends are all the same, and about 90% of glaciers are shrinking worldwide." (http://www.skepticalscience.com/himalayan-glaciers-growing.htm). So what's the answer? No matter how much data will point to a particular outcome, some skeptics will confound the issues by only picking individual anomalies or by ignoring long term trends. These diversions do not address the most important question: what is the real state of global climate change?  Politicians are the worst, often choosing a position solely to gain support from their base. And in election years, the climate change clown show will only escalate.

Winters a' comin'...

It never ceases to amaze me how fast it changes from summer to winter up here. Blink twice and you miss fall. After a pleasantly warm September, October starts with snow on the ground. Here's the weather services September summary (www.arh.noaa.gov): "September 2014 started off wet and cool for the first week and then transitioned to warm and dry conditions for the second and third weeks. The last week of the month turned cool with rain and snow showers. The average high temperature at the Fairbanks airport was 57.2 degrees which was 2.6 degrees above the normal high temperature of 54.4 degrees. The average low temperature was 35.5 degrees which was 0.4 degrees above the normal low temperature of 35.1 degrees. The average temperature for September 2014 was 46.4 degrees which was 1.5 degrees above the normal average temperature for September of 44.9 degrees. the average temperature for September 2014 ranked as the 35th warmest of 109 years of record. The warmest temperature recorded at the Fairbanks airport in September 2014 was 76 degrees on the 14th of September. not only was this a daily record high temperature but there has only been one other day in the climate record in Fairbanks that the temperature has been warmer than 76 degrees on a date later than the 14th of September. In 1995 the temperature reached 78 degrees on the 21st during a record breaking Chinook event. The coldest temperature recorded at the Fairbanks airport in September 2014 was 24 degrees which occurred on the 28th. The first snow of the season fell on the 23rd which is a couple days later than the average first snow fall in Fairbanks. 2.89 inches of precip fell during the month of September and was 1.79 inches above the normal precip of 1.10 inches. September was the 4th consecutive month with above normal precipitation and ranked as the 4th wettest September of 101 years of record. 1.43 inches of rain fell on the 1st which was a new daily rain fall record for that day. 0.3 inches of snow fell at the airport during the month of September which was 1.5 inches below the normal snowfall of 1.8 inches. This ranks as the 37th snowiest of 101 years of record." Probably more weather information than you need, so here's some pictures of the latest snowfall. While the dogs appear to love the snow, the cat's are kind of confused. Every morning they sit at the back door waiting to be let out, but when you open the door, they just stare at the snow and look at you like "where'd that come from?" Then go back inside. Pretty funny.

I got rhythm....

When I was getting discharged from the hospital in Seattle (Summer vacation? 6/30/14), they found an irregular pulse, so did some tests and figured out it was AFib (atrial fibrillation). They thought it was a temporary reaction to the anesthesia and would go away, but it didn't. After seeing a cardiologist in Fairbanks, he recommended ablation therapy, where they normalize (tune up) the heart to eliminate the irregular nerve impulses that cause AFib.  Since it wasn't available here, we had to go to Anchorage, where they did the procedure this past week. Apparently, it was successful. We won't know for a while yet, since it occasionally returns, but for now I got my rhythm back.

More on AFib at:
http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/atrial-fibrillation/multimedia/img-20096441

(You'll have to copy and paste into your browser.)

Fall rides...

The past two weeks have been near perfect weather. Sunny for the most part and 60-70° F; quite a contrast to the cool, rainy summer (The end of Thermidor 7/31/14). Between the hip problems (Summer vacation 6/30/14) and the rain, I'd hardly ridden the bikes since last year.  It didn't seem worth the trouble, given that it literally was a major pain in the butt when I tried to ride the bike in May. But with this recent warm spell. I figured I'd better get to it or miss a whole season of riding. Each time I went out, it felt better, until it seemed like there'd never been a problem. The rides were comparatively short, maybe twenty miles or so, but the colors were near perfect (Leaves a' turnin' 9/15/14). I finally remembered to take the camera when I went  down to the Chena River.

The colors were past their prime by then, but you get a great panorama of the valley and hills north of town as you ride across the flats. But now it's cooled off, the leaves are down, and the rains have returned. Looks like this could have been the last ride of the year.

Leaves a' turnin...

The fall colors were out this past weekend as the temperatures rose to record levels, thanks to a strong low in the gulf creating Chinook winds. The color change this year is a sharp contrast to last fall when the leaves didn't change until early Oct (Autumn leaves... 10/5/13). What was especially noticeable this year was the early arrival of brown to some of the hillsides. This was likely due to an infestation of moth larvae on the birch trees.

According to the local news-minus (newsminer.com): "There has been an outbreak in Fairbanks of the amber-marked birch leaf miner (Profenusa thomsoni), an insect that came to North America in the early 1900s and arrived in Fairbanks by about 2002. Leaf miners overwinter in the ground as pupae and emerge as adults in the spring. The adults lay eggs at the tips of young birch leaves. The eggs hatch into larvae (small caterpillars) that eat the insides of the leaves, leaving yellow areas scattered with worm nuggets. After a few weeks, the larvae fall to the ground and pupate. The leaves that were mined then turn brown."
Their source:  http://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/r10/forestgrasslandhealth/?cid=fsbdev2_038906

What's interesting is that in the past few years, the aspen trees had suffered from a similar infestation and turned a pale shade of yellow well before the birch. This year the aspen apparently were unaffected and exhibited the more vibrant colors.

Back on the dozer...

After several year's hiatus, went back out to Nome Creek to drive the dozer (Dozin' off again 8/9/10).  Rather than dealing with the existing tailing piles, this was an area where contractors had removed tailings for road reconstruction. In doing so, they had excavated below the water level of the creek, so that whenever it flooded, the creek would flow into the area and erode new channels. The problem was how to consolidate all the flow into a single channel without sufficient material to build up the new stream banks. As usual, you have to make a mess to fix a mess. Excavated a new channel and some ponds to create material for the stream banks and then spent a lot of time landscaping the area to make the new banks and floodplain. But in the end, the creek was back into a single channel, hopefully for a good while...or at least until the next big flood.
Looking downstream at the eroded channel:

A view from the cab after realignment:

Floored Again...

When I started the garage addition (In Addition, 9/18/13), I didn't really have any plans, just scribbled some numbers on the back of an envelope to estimate the lumber. As for the floor,  I figured on leaving it gravel. Well that left a lot to be desired, so decided to put in a real floor. My neighbor Butch  mentioned how he had laid all weather plywood on top of gravel in his rental garage, so that seemed like a way to go.
 First had to dig out some of the gravel to lay out the floor joists:

Then backfilled and compacted gravel to the top of the joists:

Finally laid out the plywood and screwed 'em down for life:

Suh-weet!

The End of Thermidor

I'd always thought that the names of the calendar months were kind of odd since they had so little to do with the seasons. So the other day I read that July was called Thermidor in the old French revolutionary calendar. I figured that unlike the metric system, the French actually had a good idea for once. While their calendar never caught on, the name, which means heat in Greek, is a great name for July, since on the average, it's the hottest month of the year in interior Alaska.
Except this year, not so much. Unlike last summer when we set the record for the most days above 80°F, this summer has been cool and rainy. We set a record for the most rain in June and July, so far, is second on on the list. So now it's the end of a very unThermidor-like July and we're hoping for a warm, dry August.